Hey pals, here's my first "guide", more of a little tidbit of advice ...

I am gathering spawndata for certain spots, farm them until i have statistically accurate numbers and then post them here to help you pick the best place to hunt, not be frustrated as fast or hunt at the best times. Spawnrates are not only influenced by the overall rarity, but also by competition, many abundants make the rares even rarer ... or do they :D? That's what you can read here ^^

 

 

First i started with PKMN Tower Underground, since i like Litwicks and wanted some:

Time : Day

1000 Encounter

statistical accuracy = 1%

 

Rattata = 618 = 61,8%

Zubat = 176 = 17,6%

Gastly = 99 = 9,9%

Misdreavus = 63 = 6,3%

Shuppet = 35 = 3,5%

Spiritomb = 4 = 0,4%

Litwick =5 = 0,5%

 

Time : Night

1000 Encounter

statistical accuracy = 1%

 

rattata = 629 = 62,9%

Zubat = 134 = 13,4%

Gastly = 87 = 8,7%

Misdreavus = 73 = 7,3%

Shuppet= 41 = 4,1%

Duskull = 13 = 1,3%

Litwick = 11 = 1,1%

Spiritomb =11 = 1,1%

This will be very useful. Keep working! :Grin:

I'm honestly not sure you are going to find stats that are accurate to what they actually are. I could be wrong and you might actually, but what it all boils down to is luck, you could hunt for 3 days looking for a litwick and not find any in more than 1,000 encounters(been there done that) and at the same time, someone else could go there and Litwick could be the first pokemon they find, and even the second depending on their luck.

 

I think the best way to find a pokemon is probably just to determine which rarity category it is and expect those that are in the extremely rare tiers to take hours and hours to find.

 

I appreciate the work and time you put into this, I just think that since its all RNG that your numbers could be drastically different from what another player could experience. For example, if I had to guess about this area I'd say that Spiritomb and Litwick both have the same encounter rates. Its also possible that Shuppet and Misdreavus also have the same encounter rate(not sure, it could be different, honestly I've never spent any time down there), but you just happen to have much better luck finding those two than you did Spiritomb and Litwick.

 

I am aware that eventually you could narrow it down to pretty accurate spawn rates, but 1,000 might be too low of a number to accurately zero in on their rates.

199645 I'm honestly not sure you are going to find stats that are accurate to what they actually are. I could be wrong and you might actually, but what it all boils down to is luck, you could hunt for 3 days looking for a litwick and not find any in more than 1,000 encounters(been there done that) and at the same time, someone else could go there and Litwick could be the first pokemon they find, and even the second depending on their luck.

 

I think the best way to find a pokemon is probably just to determine which rarity category it is and expect those that are in the extremely rare tiers to take hours and hours to find.

 

I appreciate the work and time you put into this, I just think that since its all RNG that your numbers could be drastically different from what another player could experience. For example, if I had to guess about this area I'd say that Spiritomb and Litwick both have the same encounter rates. Its also possible that Shuppet and Misdreavus also have the same encounter rate(not sure, it could be different, honestly I've never spent any time down there), but you just happen to have much better luck finding those two than you did Spiritomb and Litwick.

 

I am aware that eventually you could narrow it down to pretty accurate spawn rates, but 1,000 might be too low of a number to accurately zero in on their rates.

 

the accuracy is calcuable. I learned it as x/Events, where x=Events ^(1/3)

 

{f.e. 1000=events then x=10 (10*10*10=1000) and 10/1000 = 0,01 =1% and that 1% would then be the range so if litwick was at 1,5% encounter rate it would be between 0.5% and 2.5% with a high probability... I should review Statistical significance again... to explain it more eloquently}.

 

this is by no means absolute, but again very probable. Still, nobody forces you to use this information, as it could be, as you said, completely inaccurate.

It's like when I found 4 togepis in like 15 minutes on love island

but if you hunt for hours to end the probability of the inaccuracy sinks lower and lower

neat :P feels good to have gotten a shiny litwick =]

199635 Hey pals, here's my first "guide", more of a little tidbit of advice ...

I am gathering spawndata for certain spots, farm them until i have statistically accurate numbers and then post them here to help you pick the best place to hunt, not be frustrated as fast or hunt at the best times. Spawnrates are not only influenced by the overall rarity, but also by competition, many abundants make the rares even rarer ... or do they :D? That's what you can read here ^^

 

 

First i started with PKMN Tower Underground, since i like Litwicks and wanted some:

Time : Day

1000 Encounter

statistical accuracy = 1%

 

Rattata = 618 = 61,8%

Zubat = 176 = 17,6%

Gastly = 99 = 9,9%

Misdreavus = 63 = 6,3%

Shuppet = 35 = 3,5%

Spiritomb = 4 = 0,4%

Litwick =5 = 0,5%

 

Time : Night

1000 Encounter

statistical accuracy = 1%

 

rattata = 629 = 62,9%

Zubat = 134 = 13,4%

Gastly = 87 = 8,7%

Misdreavus = 73 = 7,3%

Shuppet= 41 = 4,1%

Duskull = 13 = 1,3%

Litwick = 11 = 1,1%

Spiritomb =11 = 1,1%

 

 

Hello.... i have 5 badges... and i really want Spirtomb, i have membership... and spend 2 hours on Pokemon Tower Underground and could catch every pokemon except Spirtomb, never appeard, actually have 3 Litwick.

Is it posible that i need more badges or unlock another región so Spiritomb could appear to me.????

201651

199635 Hey pals, here's my first "guide", more of a little tidbit of advice ...

I am gathering spawndata for certain spots, farm them until i have statistically accurate numbers and then post them here to help you pick the best place to hunt, not be frustrated as fast or hunt at the best times. Spawnrates are not only influenced by the overall rarity, but also by competition, many abundants make the rares even rarer ... or do they :D? That's what you can read here ^^

 

 

First i started with PKMN Tower Underground, since i like Litwicks and wanted some:

Time : Day

1000 Encounter

statistical accuracy = 1%

 

Rattata = 618 = 61,8%

Zubat = 176 = 17,6%

Gastly = 99 = 9,9%

Misdreavus = 63 = 6,3%

Shuppet = 35 = 3,5%

Spiritomb = 4 = 0,4%

Litwick =5 = 0,5%

 

Time : Night

1000 Encounter

statistical accuracy = 1%

 

rattata = 629 = 62,9%

Zubat = 134 = 13,4%

Gastly = 87 = 8,7%

Misdreavus = 73 = 7,3%

Shuppet= 41 = 4,1%

Duskull = 13 = 1,3%

Litwick = 11 = 1,1%

Spiritomb =11 = 1,1%

 

 

Hello.... i have 5 badges... and i really want Spirtomb, i have membership... and spend 2 hours on Pokemon Tower Underground and could catch every pokemon except Spirtomb, never appeard, actually have 3 Litwick.

Is it posible that i need more badges or unlock another región so Spiritomb could appear to me.????

 

Nope, I did the same at 5 badges (but for the litwick, duh ;)) and had some spiritiombs to sell ...