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No Shinies at all?


Dav3cske

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307391 Number of encounter doesn't matter, each encounter has its own 1/8192 chance.

 

I get you, but since the generator is uniform, it gives an overall 1 shiny over 8192 spawns over the server and all players, same rate of course for 1 player.

 

If you encounter 8192 Pokémon, your expected number of shinies is 1. You may get 0 or 4. Another player has the same expectation, and may get 1. Etc.

If you calculate the mean of shinies encounters for 8192 spawns, you will find it close to 1.

The more data you have, the closer it gets to 1.

 

Also, someone who encounters 16384 can "expect" 2 shinies, while a person encountering 1 Pokémon has almost no expectation at all for shinies.

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