Jhaydenite Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 I have been hunting it for 4 days and as of last night, i try not to sleep for better odds,...its been 32 hrs now that im awake to hunt that red bird, but its still not there... i cant feel its xmas as its more like a torture now to get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tro11z Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 318933 I have been hunting it for 4 days and as of last night, i try not to sleep for better odds,...its been 32 hrs now that im awake to hunt that red bird, but its still not there... i cant feel its xmas as its more like a torture now to get one. You have all month to find it. My goal is to get 20 swablu's per day. So I'm gonna get about 400 of them. That way I have a 40% chance of getting one. Still bad odds but that is the point of making them rare. Not everyone can get them. It is a challenge but you will be one of the only ones in the game to have one in the end if you do find one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamesling95 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 the counter rate is rare + xmas rate yeah is very hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jhaydenite Posted December 8, 2016 Author Share Posted December 8, 2016 Yeah but 4 days rips off the fun, for playing. :'( i really want one soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelfie Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 7 boxes and nothing on my end, even ended up with a another shiny OT before event swablu xD Check Out My Shop; Click Me I Am Strong Because I've Been Weak. I Am Fearless Because I've Been Afraid. I Am Wise Because I've Been Foolish. IGN: Pelfie - Shiny Wild OT Count: 54 - Guild: Fluffy Nation - Game Time: +2200Hrs - Server: Silver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jahus Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 318935 You have all month to find it. My goal is to get 20 swablu's per day. So I'm gonna get about 400 of them. That way I have a 40% chance of getting one. Still bad odds but that is the point of making them rare. Not everyone can get them. It is a challenge but you will be one of the only ones in the game to have one in the end if you do find one. Seriously. Just read again what you have said: After 20 Swablu per day, during one month, it makes you 40% chance to get one (a bit more if you do it everyday, though). And you call this rare? It's not a challenge, it's almost impossible for any player to get one. It's inhuman to ask someone to farm 20 hours a day for one month just to get one Christmas sprite! If all Pokémon had Xmas sprites, it would be okay, because actually, we are finding shinies, but it's just the already rare Pokémon. You don't get your 20 Swablu in 6 hours playtime, you get them in more than 12 hours playtime! I know no one asks players to do it, but some of us are so much attached to the game that they want one really hard, and are ready to invest more time on it than they would do in a daytime job... But yeah, we have no lifes. Let's just be frank to each others and to the devs: the 800% more chance than a shiny is just an arbitrary rate! An arbitrary decision, and it doesn't mean it's the right probability to code in the game, every game developer knows that what he thinks is good isn't always what the gamer community appreciates; we do not ask for 1/20 like clones, and we do not want 1/8192 like shinies, we just ask for something calibrated to find a balance between challenge and fun. However, I belive I understand where the 800% (8 times) more than a shiny comes from: Maybe from the fact that there are usually 8 different spawns in a map. That would make sense… and it would give the same probability to find one shiny "of the species you want"; only if the spawn rates where all equal. But in this case, the Pokémon we want in Xmas edition are rare, far more than any other in the map. And it's why I think that it is important to calibrating the probability. Sorry for the long post. tl;dr Please, find some balance between rarity, challenge and fun. Edit: By the way: Getting 1024 Swablu doesn't give you a 100% chance to find one; but only 63% to find at least 1 (cf. Poisson distribution but I might be completely wrong). Red server Shop | Boss Guide Lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diabo123 Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 318935 318933 I have been hunting it for 4 days and as of last night, i try not to sleep for better odds,...its been 32 hrs now that im awake to hunt that red bird, but its still not there... i cant feel its xmas as its more like a torture now to get one. You have all month to find it. My goal is to get 20 swablu's per day. So I'm gonna get about 400 of them. That way I have a 40% chance of getting one. Still bad odds but that is the point of making them rare. Not everyone can get them. It is a challenge but you will be one of the only ones in the game to have one in the end if you do find one. Just for make you happier, your calculus are wrong. The % of getting an event one after 400 tries are (1-(999/1000)^400)*100 = 32,98 % ( I'm assuming you meet 1 event every 1000 normal) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anonywish Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Good luck. (24) Badges / (12) OT Shiny / (0) Life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tro11z Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 319065 Just for make you happier, your calculus are wrong. The % of getting an event one after 400 tries are (1-(999/1000)^400)*100 = 32,98 % ( I'm assuming you meet 1 event every 1000 normal) Swablu aren't extremely rare. They are actually pretty easy to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pelfie Posted December 8, 2016 Share Posted December 8, 2016 Well kinda depend on the luck, like i've farmed alot and sometimes you wont find one in like an hour or two and sometimes you may find like 3 in a row so yeah. Check Out My Shop; Click Me I Am Strong Because I've Been Weak. I Am Fearless Because I've Been Afraid. I Am Wise Because I've Been Foolish. IGN: Pelfie - Shiny Wild OT Count: 54 - Guild: Fluffy Nation - Game Time: +2200Hrs - Server: Silver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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