[Tool] PROkedex (because Reborn is down) - UPDATED to 1.0.4b

[Karyoplasma]

On 2/19/2024 at 7:10 PM, Duyh91 said:

Hiya, how did you calculate the encounter chance? And also the current data dump has rarity as "common, uncommon...etc." where as your data has a specific number for the tier. Did they change it recently?

 

Sorry for the late reply. I don't check the forums much these days since I'm not actively playing anymore.

 

The spawn chance predictions were a side project of mine to evaluate farming spots and were founded on the idea that each tier had a weight attached to it. The weights were estimated using collected spawn data from BetterFarm. I hunted X-mas Axew in 2020 and it took 47.6k encounters and I had the tier data via the spawn dump (I also had some help from clan members that farmed a lot and provided their data for me). I simply added all weights from a route and divided the tier weight by the total weight for the spawn chance and then manually adjusted the estimated weights until they roughly aligned with my data sets.

What I didn't know was that there always have been more than 9 tiers even tho reborn only showed 9. In reality, there are sub-tiers that vary greatly in chance, about like the way it is presented now with common, uncommon, rare, just that there are common T9, uncommon T9 and rare T9 tiers (many different ones for each group). I assumed they were all weighted equally, so the spawn chance prediction was never accurate and there won't ever be a way to accurately predict them unless the spawn editors decide to make the weights public.

The only thing you can do to get an accurate spawn prediction is to go to a spawn and then count what you encounter for a long, long time and then you will have a reliable representation of what to expect on that spot. The rarer a spawn, the more encounter data you would need to collect and you also have to collect it in an unbiased manner, so you'll need at least more than 20k encounters in your data set and you have to make sure that you don't run into sampling biases (stop collecting data on a particularly bad or good streak).

 

The tier1-9 data was just part of the spawn data back then. They have removed it since because it was, as elaborated above, misleading. I assume they didn't want to keep conveying the idea that there are only 9 spawn tiers.

Edited May 6 by Karyoplasma