Rarity & Encounter Probabiility

[Nagisao]

Hello,

 

I've started playing this game for about 2 weeks. I understand that the game utilizes a spawn system using discrete levels of rarity (tiers) from 1-9. I usually refer to the PRO wiki spawn data for catching purposes, however, I'm wondering what are the probability formulas with respect to these rarity tiers?

 

With that, anyone should be able to calculate the encounter probability of any given Pokemon on any given map, not just a qualitatively descriptive "tier". I understand that there is some kind of weighting algorithm in there, meaning the spawn rate for a certain Pokemon on a certain map is not only determined by its own rarity tier, but also those of other Pokemons spawning there.

 

I'm sure there is a formula, since the game relies on an algorithm to perform spawning, and I hope it is not a secret. I searched through the forum and haven't found much related discussion, and with such a big player population that seems a bit weird.

[Prehax]

Hello [mention]NagisaO[/mention],

 

those probabilities are not public and won't be made public sadly :x

[Nagisao]

Hi, thanks for replying, although I can't really think of a motivation to keep it a secret, maybe to avoid discouraging players?

 

However, even if the numbers are hidden, players can still try to estimate them using tedious but effective statistical methods, since what's hidden here is merely the probabilities of a simple categorical distribution, and once the number of samples reach say 10k~20k, things will get clear without much error.

 

And if there actually are a few players willing to take on that mission, the policy seems to create a lose-lose situation for both sides where one wastes a ton of time to nullify the policy set by another.