Problem with snivy rarity tier

[Rahz]

Hello,
I would like to point out an issue, regarding the rarity tier of snivy. According to the bot, it is tier 8 , which is reasonable. However, it is actually tier 9, since it takes 2 hours / encounter . Given the fact that H.A is required + hidden power is pretty much important,  it is way too rare. There are also other people , who support my claim.  Please restore the rarity tier to 8. 

Thank you in advance!
 

[Salemzeroo]

+1

[Pedrawr]

I agree, while hunting it feels like it harder to find than other tier 8 pokes.

[Ajeykrz]

+1

 

[Aspedo]

+1

[Raika]

Hi @rahz

Respectfully, when you were creating this thread, were you trying to:

• Report a bug, the bug being that a tier 8 Snivy (As seen on Reborn) feels like a tier 9, while providing no supporting data or evidence to your claim that you found 1 Snivy per 2 hours, and no comparison of another tier 9 Pokemon, such as Furfrou at Route 217 or Honedge at Cave of Justice.  
• Suggest to fix this bug, saying, "restore the rarity tier to 8" assuming it felt like a tier 9, again, with no comparison at all to a tier 9 Pokemon.

 

If you were trying to report this as a bug, then I can assure you this is not a bug at all. In your post, you claimed, "it is actually tier 9, since it takes 2 hours / encounter .", but we can't estimate spawn rarity by hunting time alone. If you were to report a bug such as this one, you'd need to instead provide the total encounters and total Snivy encounters you've gotten, as this is a much more reliable way to measure this. Calculating the time a person took to encounter 1 Snivy is almost always going to be irrelevant, since the time between each encounter differs. We also have to consider the fact that one might not fully dedicate their time to hunt in the 2-hour time frame, and will leave to check messages on Discord, chat in-game, get up to get a glass of water, use the bathroom, etc. 

 

In an attempt to disprove your claim of 1 Snivy per 2 hours, I've went out of my way and decided to hunt at Forest Pit for a total of 6 hours and 41 minutes, not including breaks. I've documented the spawns using PRO BetterFarm and put my data together in a spreadsheet so it'd be easier for you to understand. You can open and check the spreadsheet out here: Forest Pit Snivy encounters

I only hunted during the morning and daytime to avoid Murkrows, which could potentially mess the numbers up. Following the spreadsheet, a total of 25 Snivys were found in under 7 hours. 5 Snivys before the 1-hour mark, another 5 under 2 hours, 4 before 3 hours, 3 after the 3rd hour, 4 in the following hour, 1 in the next, and 3 in the final hour. Of course, the spawn is sporadic, resulting in some skewed data, specifically between hours 4 and 6, with only 1 Snivy found in that hour. We also have to remember that the bigger the sample size, the more accurate the data and average will be. Basing this off of only 2,000 encounters will not be as reliable as say, 50,000 encounters, however, just from this data, we can conclude that the number far exceeds the Snivys you've encountered in 2 hours, which is quite questionable.

 

There is a wonderful tool created by Kaminokage used to calculate the percentage of spawns that you can find here. I've input the different Pokemon and their rarity in the calculator to be calculated 3 times, inputting the Snivy in 3 different tiers. Tier 7, 8, and 9. The following are the results: 

Spoiler

Snivy as a tier 7:

Snivy as a tier 8:

 

Snivy as a tier 9

 

 

My final result, even with this small of a sample data, when hunting the Snivys were 1.25%, which is way over Snivys tier 9 spawn rate, 0.68%, and slightly over Snivys tier 8 spawn rate, 1.12%. Note that my numbers were concluded from a sample data of 2,000, so it might not be accurate with skewed and irregular spawns. This can be evident if you look at my 6th - 10th Snivys, and my 14th - 16th Snivys.

 

As an extra bit of information and comparison, I hunted another tier 8 Pokemon, Bunnelby. My end result with Bunnelby, in 2,000 encounters, including the spawn rate from the spawn calculator were as follows:

Spoiler

Route 224 with no active membership

 

Final result after 2,000 encounters

 

 

In conclusion, no, the spawn is not bugged. Should it be changed or reduced? I don't think it should. Snivy never had a spawn before, and only recently has it been added. Plus, giving Snivy an easier spawn can potentially shake up the Serperior market, but that's up for another discussion in the future. 

When hunting Pokemon, especially rarer Pokemon, there is a term called Negativity Bias. This Negativity Bias simply means the tendency for people to pay more attention to negative things, and pay less attention to positive things, usually negative outweighing the positive. The same can be said for hunting Pokemon, if you do not find a good Pokemon. Just be patient and stay strong. Eventually you'll find what you're looking for.

I do hope you understand, and that this post helped you. Please don't take it as an offense, as I am trying to help you understand how spawn rates work, and perhaps in the future if there truly is an error, then you will be aware of how to report it properly.

 

Finally, if you were interested in the Snivy rates per Snivy, I'll post them right here:

Snivy 1-13

Spoiler

Snivy 14-25 + Encounter 2,000

Spoiler

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by Raika