On rerolls, Hidden Power, and the sheer ridiculousness of the current system

[Idkup]

Much has been said about how annoying and expensive it is to reroll your legendary Pokemon. With the amount of powerful legendary Pokemon being released, this is a bigger problem than ever before. It is currently difficult to imagine a properly constructed PvP team without at least one legendary - the likes of Landorus-T, Tornadus-T, Thundurus, Manaphy, and Mega Diancie simply have no comparable huntable replacement. Because of this, I would like to present a mathematical analysis on how difficult it is to obtain a legendary that is able to function in its role - having sufficient speed to maintain its speed tier, and the correct hidden power if necessary. I will only look for average secondary stats (HP, offenses, defenses >= 15). These statistics were computed using a script that simulates rerolling a legendary over and over until it meets certain parameters. This was posted in the PvP forum as it is most relevant to PvP players.

 

First, let's consider this (admittedly subjective) list of essential legendaries:

Essential:

Spoiler

 

- Zapdos - Premier Defog user. One of the best electric types currently available, one of the best options for stall against Pokemon like Serperior. Prefers Hidden Power Ice.

- Jirachi - Good utility scarfer with access to Healing Wish and U-turn. Also quite good as a specially defensive support - reliable Stealth Rock setter and one of the best available checks to Mega Alakazam.

- Latios - Specially offensive nuke. Best offensive answer to Keldeo in the game. Reasonable way to fit Defog without severe loss of tempo. Decent mega evolution. Sometimes runs Hidden Power Fire, though I would not recommend it.

- Latias - Latios except 20 SpA is traded for bulk and access to Healing Wish. Better user of Choice Scarf, worse user of Choice Specs, has a bit more utility as a Defog user and slightly better as a Mega evolution. Occasionally runs Hidden Power Ground as a mega, but this is not necessary.

- Manaphy - The reason Unaware Calm Mind Clefable is a thing. Sometimes runs Hidden Power Fire.

- Tornadus-Therian - Premier Defog user, premier pivot, can stallbreak - the only downside of this Pokemon is Hurricane's accuracy.

- Thundurus - This thing is extremely underrated and brings so much utility in the offense mirror. Will almost always trade 1 for 2. Prefers Hidden Power Ice.

- Landorus-Therian - Everyone knows what this thing does. Sometimes runs Hidden Power Ice.

- Keldeo - One of the most dangerous offensive threats available. Will potentially start running Hidden Power Grass or Electric in the future as more people abuse Keldtar cores leading to increased usage of Gastrodon or Jellicent.

- Diancie (Mega) - Magic Bounce is good. Powerful Rock STAB with more than 80% accuracy is good. Often runs Hidden Power Fire.

 

Niche:

Spoiler

 

- Moltres

- Mew

- Raikou

- Entei

- Suicune

- Celebi

- Cresselia

- Kyurem

- Volcanion

 

 

Let's consider only the 10 legendaries listed as essential. Here are the speed IVs they must meet to remain in their speed tier:

Spoiler

 

- Zapdos - Doesn't run full speed investment, so speed IV is less important.

- Jirachi - Needs 28 to outspeed Hydreigon, which is relatively rare. Realistically, wants max to tie with other Pokemon in the speed tier like Manaphy or Mega Medicham after using Trick, but is able to play the game without it. 14 to outspeed max speed Landorus-Therian is the absolute lower bound.

- Latios / Latias - Need 30 to outspeed Ninetales-Alola, which becomes a major concern if Aurora Veil usage rises. Need 28 to outrun Keldeo, which is absolutely essential.

- Manaphy - Sometimes doesn't run full speed investment. Needs speed primarily to tie with other base 100 Pokemon. Like Jirachi, needs 28 to outrun Hydreigon, but when Hydreigon is played it is typically using a Choice Scarf and not very relevant to outspeed.

- Tornadus-Therian - Needs 30 to outrun base form Alakazam, which is of dubious relevance. Needs 27 to outspeed Adamant Mega Lopunny.

- Thundurus - Needs 30 to outrun Latios, Latias, Gengar, and the rest of the base 110 cohort. Needs 28 to outrun Ninetales-Alola, and 26 to outrun Keldeo, which is certainly necessary.

- Landorus-Therian - Needs 26 to outrun Excadrill, and 30 for the rare Lucario.

- Keldeo - Needs 26 for Mega Pinsir.

- Diancie - see Latios/Latias, but 30 is doubly important as Diancie threatens to OHKO Ninetales-Alola.

 

 

Let's take a look at how many rerolls it would take to obtain bare minimum speed, reasonable secondary stats, and Hidden Power if necessary (Mean | Median # rerolls necessary in 10,000 simulations rounded to nearest integer):

Spoiler

 

Zapdos ([ICE]; HP, Def, SpA, SpD, Spe >= 15): 285 | 199

Jirachi (HP, Atk, Def, SpD >= 15, Spe >= 28): 85 | 59

Latios/Latias (HP, Def, SpA, SpD >= 15, Spe >= 30): 171 | 117 (if only 28 speed is desired, the numbers are similar to Jirachi)

Manaphy (HP, Def, SpA, SpD, Spe >= 15): 19 | 13 (though few top-tier PvP players would use a Manaphy of this quality, it is the theoretical minimum)

Tornadus-Therian (HP, Def, SpA, SpD >= 15, Spe >= 27): 67 | 45

Thundurus ([ICE]; HP, Def, SpA, SpD >= 15, Spe >= 26): 844 | 580

Landorus-Therian (HP, Atk, Def, SpD >= 15, Spe >= 26): 56 | 39

Keldeo (HP, Def, SpA, SpD >= 15, Spe >= 26): 56 | 38 (even after 10000 simulations there is still variance! theoretically this value is the same as that for Landorus-T)

Diancie (HP, Atk, Def, SpA, SpD >= 15, Spe >= 30): 313 | 215

 

 

Sum total: 1877 mean /  1305 median reroll tickets needed for simply playable stats. Source code can be provided if anyone is interested in double-checking my work, but arithmetic will show that these numbers are reasonable. I think no one will disagree when I say this is unrealistic for the vast majority of the playerbase. Of course, the primary offender is Hidden Power, but I would consider these numbers unacceptable even without the [Ice] electrics. As frustrating as it is for players, I can't imagine it's profitable for the game, either - with these numbers most players simply won't bother rerolling, weakening the economy.

 

My best suggestion for mitigating this issue is allowing players to grind to increase their legendaries' IVs up to a maximum of 15. I'd love to hear any alternative ideas.

 

As an aside, this forum needs actual moderation. The Greninja thread was a cesspool of low-effort posts and blatant misinformation - Keita eventually closed it, but ideally we would be able to engage in productive discussion without these sorts of distractions.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by idkup

[Yerk]

I was just thinking about this a few days ago and it's a big reason why I keep going back to showdown instead of playing pro.

 

My idea was: the more rerolls you put into a specific legendary, the higher the iv floor is for that legend. With a cap ofc. 

For example:

1st rr: iv floor of 1 

5th rr: iv floor of 5

10th rr: iv floor of 10.

Numbers can be tweaked and stop wherever staff sees fit.

 

As for hidden power, just make an expensive item that lets us pick it and it and adjusts our legends current ivs up or down by 1 to fit that.

[Fairview]

I've spent A LOT of money on PRO and rerolls awhile ago. I knew buying rerolls was a huge waste but not like this. It's actually insane, even with the price of CC's being as high as they are.

I was super lucky getting an amazing Thundurus and possibly other legendaries straight from the quest but all of my re-rolls for anything else have basically gone to waste and after seeing this, I don't regret not buying more.

With Kup's idea, it would make PvP more competitive in the long run, and it wouldn't be overpowered as it would only hit the minimum usability of a few legendaries. If the grind isn't outrageous either, it would give content for everyone to work on or it would give people a reason to actually spend money on the game to buy RRs. I like this idea better than raising the cap per RR because that only helps a select few who've saved enough money/RRs plus the lack of grindable content wouldn't attract people who've left the game to come back, and overall just doesn't have enough incentive to get me to play the game again. I can't even be bothered to do my daily Solaceon to get RRs right now.

If I'm going to waste money buying CC's to buy RR's right now or with the RR usage cap. I'd better off investing in a gacha game instead :v...

Edited May 4, 2021 by Fairview

[Lightkiwi]

Have to agree its close to impossible to get a couple of optimal useable legendary Pokemon especially if they want a certain hidden power.

Saving up and investing points/money/time for rerolls and in the end gaining nothing from them is very demotivating to even (continue) trying for it.

This also creates entrance barriers for higher tiers of pvp where certain legendaries (with hp) become essential as the OP mentions and new players have no realistic way of catching up to this, which is sure to hurt PVP and the game as a whole more in the long run than any change to RRs ever could (the single iv rr from the halloween event didnt break the game).

Im all for a change to make it easier to obtain more useable iv, be it raising the minimum iv to a limit with use of rerolls or by adding quests, which could also be fun and engaging but of course would be harder to implement aswell or any other ideas that might be posted here later since the current system is just not future proof.

[Exclusivez]

This is a huge +1 from me. The reroll system is currently so bad its a shame. The pvp meta on PRO suffers GREATLY from this. I've tried to explain this multiple times to no avail. This point is stressed even more by new players, how are they supposed to build a variety of teams with a variety of legendary pvpable pokemon. This discourages new players to pvp, further stagnating the pvp scene and meta. 

[Ghabra]

I agree on all these points , and ive always disliked the pro reroll system. Even though i hate being against the current , i do have some concerns about changing it because it's not as simple as buffing reroll tickets in some way.

 

As much as i hate the rerolling system, i also believe that it kind of balances out the economy in it's own way . Yes rng is a [very nice woman] and spending more and more money on rerolls does not guarantee you a decent legendary . This mechanic is absolutely horrible. Rerolling legendaries is basically gambling , and gambling is addictive , people will never give up rerolling because of the gambling adrenaline rush . Gambling as a whole is such a predatory system , but that's another can of worms that i will not really get into .

 

But reroll tickets are a currency at this point just like coin capsules. Making rerolling less rng dependant will certainly lower their value .

I have never been the best at economy but i can certainly tell that dropping a currency's value by a huge margin will have a big impact on the economy. I do not know how it will change it , either in a positive or a negative way but it certainly will. This will be a huge change towards the game whether you're a pver or a pvper. The staff really should make an educated decision here because it will decide the future of the economy of pro. 

 

Just wanted to lay out these concerns , im not opposing to the idea at all though , +1 from me.

[Evilprotagonist]

yes exacly, i've been very vocal about comparing the reroll system to the predatory-gacha system beeing used all over the gaming industry. I hate it when in the past when ever people post complains about the current reroll system there comes a bunch of white knight defending it by saying "oh if its to easy then you get everything 31 iv, no point of playing the game". I love the fact that you can show people the numbers of how bad it actually is. 
The complain have persisted and nothing have changed for 3+ years now. Its incredible predatory as mentioned before and go agianst the pg 11 politic PRO is trying to appear as. By introducing this straight up gambling mechanic to ur pg11 playerbase. If it's not okay to say "poop" in all chat, then it should not be okay with this kind of pro-casino roulette rolls.

Another thing is that this is exactly the reason which make players very frustrated with staff generated poke in pvp. To different degree ofcourse but i think i can say we all agree that we feel somewhat unfair after looking at the reroll odds us playerbase are playing with, while staff generated lando/zapdos/latios rolls  in with perfect ivs and chosen hidden powers. That just increase the unnecessary conflict that shouldnt need to exist.

I understand a replacement system is tricky, but idea like a buffer system that builds up the more u rerolls, or a mechanic that allow u to push 1 specific stats up which all pokes living in a important speed tie like 350 really need. Those idea have all been brought up in the past and i consider them all very valid. Hell you can probably add in a pvp quest for Ramona like : win 100 pvp games and u get to reroll a mon where u keep 1 stats the same, like the rerolls from events before.

Edited May 4, 2021 by EvilProtagonist

[Idkup]

3 minutes ago, Ghabra said:

I agree on all these points , and ive always disliked the pro reroll system. Even though i hate being against the current , i do have some concerns about changing it because it's not as simple as buffing reroll tickets in some way.

 

As much as i hate the rerolling system, i also believe that it kind of balances out the economy in it's own way . Yes rng is a [very nice woman] and spending more and more money on rerolls does not guarantee you a decent legendary . This mechanic is absolutely horrible. Rerolling legendaries is basically gambling , and gambling is addictive , people will never give up rerolling because of the gambling adrenaline rush . Gambling as a whole is such a predatory system , but that's another can of worms that i will not really get into .

 

But reroll tickets are a currency at this point just like coin capsules. Making rerolling less rng dependant will certainly lower their value .

I have never been the best at economy but i can certainly tell that dropping a currency's value by a huge margin will have a big impact on the economy. I do not know how it will change it , either in a positive or a negative way but it certainly will. This will be a huge change towards the game whether you're a pver or a pvper. The staff really should make an educated decision here because it will decide the future of the economy of pro. 

 

Just wanted to lay out these concerns , im not opposing to the idea at all though , +1 from me.

Reroll tickets currently sell for ~750k. If we assess the value of a playable legendary at 10M, it is only worth spending 13.3 rerolls on a legendary at their current price. As the numbers in this post demonstrate, that investment is not likely to yield a playable legendary. This shows that rerolls are currently priced based on their scarcity, not their value - I would expect little (if any) change in price if rerolls are buffed or other ways of improving legendary stats are introduced.

[Ghabra]

24 minutes ago, idkup said:

Reroll tickets currently sell for ~750k. If we assess the value of a playable legendary at 10M, it is only worth spending 13.3 rerolls on a legendary at their current price. As the numbers in this post demonstrate, that investment is not likely to yield a playable legendary. This shows that rerolls are currently priced based on their scarcity, not their value - I would expect little (if any) change in price if rerolls are buffed or other ways of improving legendary stats are introduced.

 

I hate to disagree here but rerolls , as any other item in the game are based on supply and demand. Reroll tickets are always in demand and that is why their price never plummeted. Yes their base price is based on their scarcity,  but  at worst,  their price never drops below 700k  which is 93% of the original price , and their price at their peak is around 800k which is 106% of the original price , this is why most people will hoard their reroll tickets until a new legendary drops . This shows that reroll tickets are always in demand.

 

Let's take another item as an example which is masterballs, their base price is around 50k. Masterballs are only in demand when a new legendary drops. When they are , their price goes up to 60k. 55k and below is considered cheap. But outside of when a new legendary drops , their price is around 40k , and i've even seen people even drop to 35k and 30k . That's a 20% increase in price at their peak and a whopping 40% drop in price at their lowest. This goes to show how important supply and demand are in pro, and that's for a very common item like masterballs.  I know comparing masterballs and reroll tickets might not be the best example here but this is the best comparison i came up with at the moment. 

 

If everyone can guarantee a decent / playable legendary at a fixed price , the demand will certainly decrease , just like with masterballs when no one needs them anymore . At first the prices might stay the same or increase a bit . But with time , a year or two from now, everyone will have usable legendaries and reroll tickets will not be as in demand anymore. This occurence will certainly lower their price and have a long term impact on the game economy . Again , i do not know if this effect will be a good or a positive one , we can only hope.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Ghabra
had to change some numbers because im pepega

[Saransh2848]

+1