A numbers approach to the Spawn Rates problem

[Skazord]

The game just started and all want 31 iv pokemons ... with perfect nature... wtf is wrong with u ? getting the real deal pokemons take time not 2 weeks.... Ive seen people who pay for hats and other useless clothes just to get pokemoney and then they spam chat because no one is selling real deal pokemons... OFc i will not sell my best pokemons until i get a better one (my strategy) ... game is too young for u to get a competitive team right now ..And if some abilities dont work..just let them time..and REPORT what dont work ..im sure this awesome staf will fix them when they can.. .

 

So you just ignored the entire thread, and decided to post anyway.

 

Nice.

[Bullseye]

how i ignored ? from what u say u want the best pokemons (even rare ones ) with good ivs and natures and if possible to have 1 item too fast and easy..

[Skazord]

how i ignored ? from what u say u want the best pokemons (even rare ones ) with good ivs and natures and if possible to have 1 item too fast and easy..

 

"The game just started and all want 31 iv pokemons"

 

Point out the line where I said I want 6x31 IV'd pokemon.

 

This post is about the absolutely ridiculous rates of rarer pokemon. Some people don't ever even see them. When a pokemon is almost impossible to find, don't you think there's something wrong?

I went with the competitive approach to show that finding a good pokemon (not even a perfect one or 6x31, like you implied, just "good", which was a good nature+a single good IV) is harder than finding a shiny pokemon. That's not okay.

 

So yea, you didn't read the entire post, and you didn't read the entire thread, since your argument was already used multiple times. Learn to read, perhaps?

[Jinga]

how i ignored ? from what u say u want the best pokemons (even rare ones ) with good ivs and natures and if possible to have 1 item too fast and easy..

 

The topic was about spawn rates and you are talking about 6x31 ived Pokémon, market and whatnot clearly off-topic -_-

[Snorlax]

I like how Skazord is replying to all the comment that is not related to the topic yet the comment that Red post he doesn't reply. It is because his number were right or you just want to continue to ignore his statement and keep complaining about the spawn rates.

[Bullseye]

The rates are good how they are ... how i make offtopic if u said is hard to get a competitive pokemon ..competitive mean what i said Very good ivs , ability and Nature ...u want free dratini for everyone ...1/10 is very big chance ... This is a MMO , in 800 players if we all find a dratini at 10 pokes...he will be common as rattata ...( U said 1/10 so dont say again i make offtopic ) And if you are lucky u can find a rare pokemon in 10 minutes

 

The problem is at you..not at rates..MMO total different from normal games . And u can do story without dratini or whatever poke u want

[Domonoco]

Man, both sides have good arguments and reasons for the way things are. Devs just don't want there to be a flood of good/rare pokemon which would ruin the economy long term while people don't want to spend unnecessary long hours, paying lost of ingame money to find a rare poke. I believe there should be a compromise because i don't disagree with either side.

[Revi]

The rates are good how they are ... how i make offtopic if u said is hard to get a competitive pokemon ..competitive mean what i said Very good ivs , ability and Nature ...u want free dratini for everyone ...1/10 is very big chance ... This is a MMO , in 800 players if we all find a dratini at 10 pokes...he will be common as rattata ...( U said 1/10 so dont say again i make offtopic ) And if you are lucky u can find a rare pokemon in 10 minutes

 

The problem is at you..not at rates..MMO total different from normal games . And u can do story without dratini or whatever poke u want

How many hours did you played? I have 3 pokes at lvl 100, 1 97, 1 92, 5 or more 70-80+, found a shiny even with my bad luck, and NO DRATINI FOUND!! Shiny pokes are easier to find than dratiny. The rate to find a shiny is 1/8192. Average time per combat 15seconds(it's probably more), you know what that means? 34,13h real time non stop pressing A-D-A-D-A-D in the same spot TO FIND ONE. It's insane don't you think?

[Skazord]

Ok so, lets do a simple map and statistics here.

Say you have a 100% guaranteed spawn regardless of its core rate. Let that Pokemon be a Dragonite. What are you chances to get a Dragonite you want, or what are you chances to get viable Dragonite (rain version/spakter, but you wanted an raw attacker)? Say you dont care much about HP, Spakt or even spdef but you want its Speed and Atk EV trained to max where nature is adamant. Ok so, I will explain on my way and what is my head atm.

 

You have a 100% chance to encounter a dragonite where 0% is a event that is not to happen. In this case, you not encountering the Dragonite.

 

- You have a 0.032% chance for that Dragonite to have max Attack and 0.016% chance for that Dragonite to have both Speed and Attack max. If you are to encounter same Pokemon five times in row the numbers will change. Max attack possibility will be 0.161% and both speed and attack max will have 0.081% chance.

 

- If you dream about specific narrowed stat set than your chance is 0.005%. This only applies for your own wish for stat set. Somewhere around 0.007% would be optimal. Optimal in the way that your Pokemon is not a trash but super useful Pokemon stat wise.

 

- On top of that you have 0.04% chance to get nature you WANT and 0.05% chance for that Dragonite to be battle VIABLE where 5 natures differential can be tolerated. Given the nature you got, Pokemon can be put for a different use, such as; 5 ways of using said Pokemon. Meaning, you have five times higher chance to get viable one based on the toleration level you might have.

 

- Now all that add onto desired ability. Say Pokemon can have 2 abilities, then your chance to get one you really want wont go up twice as low, it will go down a lot more given the rarity of hidden ability.

 

- So doing little side math your chances of getting the amazing Pokemon with encounter rate of 100% is 0.00035%. This applies on one account only at only specific time and specific event, one event only. If you are to encounter it 5 times in row then you have to take all of the variables from the above and determinate your luck. However, during that time only with 33 players on the same map the chance of "good" Dragonite being found is 0.0105%. 0.0105% for a single encounter. No, 33 encounters actually because we have 33 players on the map.

 

- So eventually, in 24 hours span there will be 4.809 Dragonites found by 33 users, God like Dragonites. Now where are the mid ones, somehow viable ones and shinies and you even can guess how many of rare Pokemon will be found in general? Give it a more time than just a day and you pretty much get the game flooded with "good" Pokemon. That being said, this does not have to be a Dragonite. This can be say Rattata where probability of someone getting the God version of Rattata is said above. Also keep in mind that game has several more places where those are being targeted for hunt. Don't you think it would be too much for the game to be flooded with good Pokemon in less than a month? That would severely damage the economy and demand as whole.

---

 

- Regardless, I am working on the spawns on my PC. Spawns you have now in the game are rather old because I work on them on my own server. In any case, this has so little with spawns. I do will admit that there are some spawns that might not be consinstent But that is what I always expected due to requests and reports from users side. For some the variety is awesome and they like some Pokemon being harder to find but also for some they want a slight change. In any case, that has little with the rate due to you wanting to find a specific Pokemon. I am not telling you this as a staff. I've used nothing but my head to tell you these.

 

In any case, I will give it a second though and will discuss some things with people. In the meantime I will think about my formula and will test it out personally in case something was left out.

 

You're changing my original premise to fit the narrative that the encounter rates are fine as it is. I didn't say that Dragonite should be 100% rate, nor that a perfect one is needed. That's not the intent of this thread.

 

First off, you don't need a perfect pokemon to be viable in a catch-only environment. You need CERTAIN stats to be perfect, however, if you want to have an extra edge. Point being, a perfect speed, Timid Alakazam, will always win against ANY other Alakazam, unless they are both perfect Speed. So if you want to counter other Alakazams, you want yours to have perfect speed. If it doesn't, your Alakazam is instantly bad or worse than everything else. This isn't to say, that a 29 speed IV Alakazam is awful, no. But it isn't as good. Much like the Alakazam example, a lot of other glass cannon pokemon fall under this. You either get that perfect speed, or it's garbage. Which is why I used that example. But even then, that's besides the original point.

 

You're making my argument even easier when, at 100% rate, there's still a very low chance of someone finding something really good. And you also miss that you need to actually catch something for it to even count. You're assuming that everyone in every map catches whatever they find, which is far from the truth. No one goes around catching every single pokemon, unless they're actually hunting for it. Point in case, everyone in Dragon's Den is there to grind levels on their pokemon, but, if the odd Bagon appears, they'll catch it, just because it's rare. They won't catch Golbats, they won't catch Quagsires, they won't catch anything else. Why? Because they're not rare. When they want one, they'll go back and grind for it.

Much like this, not everyone is catching every single Rattata they find on their way to do something. Most of the people will run from them. A very small margin will kill them for whatever reason. An even smaller amount will actually catch them, and roll the dice to see if it's good or not.

 

You're ignoring this very important fact. People will catch these pokemon just out of being rare, not because they actually need them. If you had an area with 100% rate for Dratinis, and nothing but Dratini, it would be empty for the most part because:

a) Dratinis don't give much EXP, being a 1st stage evolution;

b) Nothing else rare shows up in that area, it's exclusively Dratini without the off chance for something nice;

c) Dratini would become common, and therefore, you would only come here to find an actual good Dratini.

Of course this is a dumb example, as a 100% area is stupid, but I think you get the point.

 

There should be rare spawns, but they shouldn't be ludicrously impossibly rare. Because people will go to the areas where rare pokemon appear to look for them specifically, and get demoralized when they don't find them over long periods of time.

 

The premise is flawed from the start. People will only catch stuff if they are genuinely interested in them (to actually find a good one) or if it's exceptionally rare. And this is where this system is lacking right now, most stuff is, for some reason, exceptionally rare, even stuff that has no deal being this rare. Dratini was just an example, there's right now, dozens of pokemon that are hard to come by, just even seeing them is hard. Catching a good one is probably the same as winning a lottery.

 

Again, I'll reiterate, I don't want stuff to be easy to find. I don't want Dratinis or other species at 50% encounter rate, god no. All I'm saying is that rates under 1% are abysmal and kill the motivation to play the game. 1-2% rates still mean that you'll only see a rare pokemon every 50 or 100 pokemons (on average, of course), which will keep them rare, will keep people actively searching for them when they need to. It means that you don't have to spend 5 hours for the offchance of finding something rare, that will ultimately be unusable except for story mode.

 

TL;DR don't do rates under 1-2%, it's insane for competitive and casual players alike

[Skazord]

I like how Skazord is replying to all the comment that is not related to the topic yet the comment that Red post he doesn't reply. It is because his number were right or you just want to continue to ignore his statement and keep complaining about the spawn rates.

 

It takes time to make a well thought of argument, especially when the other argument itself is well based.

 

It doesn't take long to shutdown dumb attempts at going offtopic or trying to misinterpret the original goal of the thread, when people clearly didn't even read the whole thing.