A numbers approach to the Spawn Rates problem

[Emperior]

My opinion is to make Dragons Den BF1 to have same spawns as Dragons Den but with higher rarities for dragons and levels from 45 average to 55 (Dragonite). This way only Dragons Club members can hunt for dragons and people can still grind on Dragons Den and get the occasional dragon.

I understand Dragons Den rates are really low because half of the server is grinding there, but having rates that low is stupid.

 

Also I repeat, increase Safari Zone rates for rare Pokes by at least 1%.

[Fredrichnietze]

Ok so, lets do a simple map and statistics here.

Say you have a 100% guaranteed spawn regardless of its core rate. Let that Pokemon be a Dragonite. What are you chances to get a Dragonite you want, or what are you chances to get viable Dragonite (rain version/spakter, but you wanted an raw attacker)? Say you dont care much about HP, Spakt or even spdef but you want its Speed and Atk EV trained to max where nature is adamant. Ok so, I will explain on my way and what is my head atm.

 

You have a 100% chance to encounter a dragonite where 0% is a event that is not to happen. In this case, you not encountering the Dragonite.

 

- You have a 0.032% chance for that Dragonite to have max Attack and 0.016% chance for that Dragonite to have both Speed and Attack max. If you are to encounter same Pokemon five times in row the numbers will change. Max attack possibility will be 0.161% and both speed and attack max will have 0.081% chance.

0.032%=32/1000 or 4/125, the chances of getting a 31 in a specific stat is 1/32x6 or 0.0052083333333333333333333333333333 also known as 1/216 and the chances of getting 2x31 (you dont really need 31 att just 23 or higher) is 1/216x2 or 1/432 also known as 0.0023148148148148148148148148148148

- If you dream about specific narrowed stat set than your chance is 0.005%. This only applies for your own wish for stat set. Somewhere around 0.007% would be optimal. Optimal in the way that your Pokemon is not a trash but super useful Pokemon stat wise.

 

- On top of that you have 0.04% chance to get nature you WANT and 0.05% chance for that Dragonite to be battle VIABLE where 5 natures differential can be tolerated. Given the nature you got, Pokemon can be put for a different use, such as; 5 ways of using said Pokemon. Meaning, you have five times higher chance to get viable one based on the toleration level you might have.

 

- Now all that add onto desired ability. Say Pokemon can have 2 abilities, then your chance to get one you really want wont go up twice as low, it will go down a lot more given the rarity of hidden ability.

 

- So doing little side math your chances of getting the amazing Pokemon with encounter rate of 100% is 0.00035%. This applies on one account only at only specific time and specific event, one event only. If you are to encounter it 5 times in row then you have to take all of the variables from the above and determinate your luck. However, during that time only with 33 players on the same map the chance of "good" Dragonite being found is 0.0105%. 0.0105% for a single encounter. No, 33 encounters actually because we have 33 players on the map.

 

- So eventually, in 24 hours span there will be 4.809 Dragonites found by 33 users, God like Dragonites. Now where are the mid ones, somehow viable ones and shinies and you even can guess how many of rare Pokemon will be found in general? Give it a more time than just a day and you pretty much get the game flooded with "good" Pokemon. That being said, this does not have to be a Dragonite. This can be say Rattata where probability of someone getting the God version of Rattata is said above. Also keep in mind that game has several more places where those are being targeted for hunt. Don't you think it would be too much for the game to be flooded with good Pokemon in less than a month? That would severely damage the economy and demand as whole.

---

 

- Regardless, I am working on the spawns on my PC. Spawns you have now in the game are rather old because I work on them on my own server. In any case, this has so little with spawns. I do will admit that there are some spawns that might not be consinstent But that is what I always expected due to requests and reports from users side. For some the variety is awesome and they like some Pokemon being harder to find but also for some they want a slight change. In any case, that has little with the rate due to you wanting to find a specific Pokemon. I am not telling you this as a staff. I've used nothing but my head to tell you these.

 

In any case, I will give it a second though and will discuss some things with people. In the meantime I will think about my formula and will test it out personally in case something was left out.

and i would like to point out that you dont see uber godlike exegutors everywhere. they are around 20% and very useful in several teirs as a wall or sunny day sweeper @ a reasonable % rate (i estimate around 20%) and have you ever seen a 3x31 one? ever? i think you math is a bit off.

[Fredrichnietze]

also to a'll you fanatics that just read title and skim then post. you are showing your ignorance by not reading, comprehending, and adding to the discussion. if you do not read the entire discussion, understand it, and decided to try to see things from every perspective. then please do not post.

[Revi]

Just found a dratini. Want to know how? Sanchez told me to buy the 75k rod, after fishing 10m with it a dratini appear. 20m later another dratini. Looks like the rod is the problem in that specific poke(surfing a lot and 0 dragonairs).

So many hours with the 15k rod wasting the time.

Still, the rates of absol, pineco, froakie, riolu, houndour( 6 o 7 full game nights before 1 appear= +8h real time), and many other pokes is just insane, 1-2% is fine.

[Sesshomaru]

i always fish with super rod there and found only 4 in like 1 week spending 6 hours+ each day there, i guess you are just lucky

[Zupercooer]

Hi guys,

 

I was reading the arguments to see what people( when I say people I'd be more specific and say mainly skazord's views considering your passionate and you have written a lot :Grin: ) thought of the spawn system currently, I found reading this rather interesting especially with the approach a lot of these arguments used. I know this is just being used as an example, but people use the dratini argument to express how rare certain pokemon are and how they should be changed. Personally from my experience of pokemon MMOs having dratini to be this rare is fine if not better for the economy a long with many other pokemon with higher rarities. Having pokemon at 1-2% encounter rate is actually quite high for a dratini considering how many people are running around dragon's den also how many people are playing the game and, on top of that, don't forget that the server is going to get bigger soon which could potentially mean more people getting into the game and therefore increase the chances of finding rarer pokemon such as dratini. But also I have played other games which have a similar style to this kind of rarity system for example Path of Exile, I do not know how many of you have played this game but finding awesome looking rare items in a game like this one can take months and I still think PRO, being only a little over 2 weeks old, I have already seen some pretty awesome pokemon but doesn't give us much of an understanding about the spawn rate vs economy just yet I'd still give it a while longer, maybe another month or so before I would really like to look through in detail what pokemon needs better spawn rates then what is currently available at the moment.

 

In terms of the competitive environment, the Alakazam argument is fruitful because alakazam can counter itself, in the same way a dragonite does, but you forget that your not going to/ rarely going to have an occasion where your going to be having the same pokemon pitched against each other. The more likely scenario is actually trying to find the ivs you need to still be able to check another pokemon/ nullify possible counters considering the variety of pokemon in this game. So this still means an Alakazam can still be usable at 20iv speed with a timid nature, but it will have more counters then say one at 25 ivs and so on, making 31 more valuable but not necessary which is vitally important for the economy and still means lower ivs can still be valuable. This means rather than actually looking for the max speed, again this is still just an example stat, research what you would need to tackle those counters/ checks. Also on the topic of pokemon, move sets are far more important than ivs in my opinion. Yes if you switch your max speed jolly dragonite up against a 20iv jolly dragonite, yours will definitely be faster, but if its already done a dragon dance that max speed is pretty darn useless toe to toe anyway.

 

Also just another thing worth considering, if you find pokemon that are really good but maybe not level 100 material, try using it as a 50 battler, or if your farming pokemon which only evolve or have moves that are more useful at above 50s, then how about level 75 tournaments, hell there is even a level 30 tournament going on currently. Sometimes a 28iv can have just the same speed as a 31 iv version so don't simply disgard that 28 iv jolly pokemon and save it for a lower level metagame.

 

Just a final thing I looked into, Red, I think you need to have a look at your calculation again, even with the 100% encounter rate, a pokemon to have a speed of max is 1/31, to have both you max speed and atk need to multiply the fraction by another 1/31, not by 1/2 otherwise the chances of finding said pokemon is actually far higher than you making it out to be, then multiply by 1/100 in your example just to find the hidden ability, then 1/2 if your using a synch to find the nature you want. Essentially the chances are very low and does not help your argument, but I do understand what your trying to get across as a message. Red, personally I think this thread has come out earlier then it needs to be I would personally not look at the spawn rates of pokemon quite yet. Can we get the spawns revised at some point however, say another 1-2 months down the line? In my opinion we would probably reach a stable economy in the game at that time and would probably give you better picture about the spawn rates of pokemon outside of theoretical realm.

 

:thanks:

 

I hope you guys have the time to read this because when I re-read it I was like. :Sleeping:

 

Anyway I hope to see you guys in game, or at least in the PRO Teamspeak channel!

[Zupercooer]

oh, I submitted twice apparently can someone delete one of them?

[Vegeta]

I repeat myself .This game have better spawn rates than other pokemon online. If you still think about rates are a imposible, start to think this game is not for you.

 

You just need to stop posting. You aren't doing anything to help the this game by saying things are fine the way that they are. This isnt other MMO's, its been boasted on multiple occasions by Player and Staff alike as the best Pokemon MMO and the only thing that inclines me to believe that is the fact that the Developers are hands on with the community about fixing things we find issue with and at least try to be reasonable when doing so. Get out of here with that "Maybe this game isnt for you" crap, if you arent going to be constructive in any way, maybe this thread isnt for you.

 

Leave, until you learn how to stop being a total BR.

[Sanchez]

I repeat myself .This game have better spawn rates than other pokemon online. If you still think about rates are a imposible, start to think this game is not for you.

 

You just need to stop posting. You aren't doing anything to help the this game by saying things are fine the way that they are. This isnt other MMO's, its been boasted on multiple occasions by Player and Staff alike as the best Pokemon MMO and the only thing that inclines me to believe that is the fact that the Developers are hands on with the community about fixing things we find issue with and at least try to be reasonable when doing so. Get out of here with that "Maybe this game isnt for you" crap, if you arent going to be constructive in any way, maybe this thread isnt for you.

 

Leave, until you learn how to stop being a total BR.

Your help quoting me its so useful.What about read what Red said and flame him?Oh wait, this wont be useful.It is better waste your brain trying to make me look bad.

[Red]

Nice to see people being engaged into the discussion. Keep it up. I am going come with news soon hopefully. I have a very bad schedule recently. Anyway, I am doing checks and tests on my PC. Mind if you note me several maps you deem critical? Thanks.