Make success rate relevant again

[V3g3tta]

Hello team,

 

So I've been playing the game for some time now, a few weeks ago I started testing the success rate on low and high attack.

 

Over the period of 2 months using Lopunny, I have used high jump 182 times, the success rate was 62%, you can argue that the sample is not big to get conclusions, however it's a beginning.

 

Two days ago, my opponent landed 7 hydro pump in succession with Keldeo and missed the 8th, 87.5% success on the battle. Today my heracross missed pin missile which has 95% while Tornadus landed Hurricane (70%) and every hurricane after that point, you might say it's just pure luck.

 

Again we tend to say luck, it was my day and other stuff, however I believe the success rate needs rework, it's pretty irrelevant right now and it causes a major dissatisfaction.

 

How many times have you seen people raging because it doesn't make sense?

 

 

[G3n3r4l]

I mean mate, i hit 8/8 leaf storms one game, next one i missed half.

It's pure chances, like, it's given a percentage chance, but that percentage isn't based off consecutive battle turns. It's a one off calc, you use it once to get one chance, the next use is a completely new chance. How do you propose to rework a success rate that is not defined by PRO staff, but rather the original games.

[Opbhai23]

+1 

[V3g3tta]

13 minutes ago, g3n3r4l said:

I mean mate, i hit 8/8 leaf storms one game, next one i missed half.

It's pure chances, like, it's given a percentage chance, but that percentage isn't based off consecutive battle turns. It's a one off calc, you use it once to get one chance, the next use is a completely new chance. How do you propose to rework a success rate that is not defined by PRO staff, but rather the original games.

I believe it should have some reasonable and logical approach, that's all I'm saying

[G3n3r4l]

1 hour ago, V3G3TTA said:

I believe it should have some reasonable and logical approach, that's all I'm saying

is standard mathematics not already a solid basis of reason and logic, that's all i'm adding. 

 

A 50% chance is a 50% chance, it does not mean you hit that chance 50% of the time, it just means that you have the same chance to hit and miss. a 70% chance means you have a 70% chance to hit it, still though, that does not mean you hit it 70% of the time.

Edited May 18, 2021 by g3n3r4l

[V3g3tta]

3 hours ago, g3n3r4l said:

is standard mathematics not already a solid basis of reason and logic, that's all i'm adding. 

 

A 50% chance is a 50% chance, it does not mean you hit that chance 50% of the time, it just means that you have the same chance to hit and miss. a 70% chance means you have a 70% chance to hit it, still though, that does not mean you hit it 70% of the time.

Thank you for bringing this up, so that's exactly my point the probability of landing a hit is not relevant in PRO.

So what is probability? it's the likelihood or the chance of an event occurring. In this case the event is not random but it has a specific chance of occurring 95% and how you can find if it works in PRO? run an infinity number of times the event and see how close you get to 1.  Something similar to what you do for the spots.

[Iceflake]

RNG can be like this, every time you click the move high jump kick its like rolling a 100 sided dice, where if it lands on 1-10 you miss the move and if you land on 11-100 you hit.  This does not mean that if you say do 100 High jump kicks with your lopunny you will crash a total of a max of 10 times.    The number will be random it could be you miss 5 or 50.  If you dont like High jump kicks accuracy you can always switch to the less powerful but more accurate drain punch on lopunny.
 

[V3g3tta]

3 hours ago, iceflake said:

RNG can be like this, every time you click the move high jump kick its like rolling a 100 sided dice, where if it lands on 1-10 you miss the move and if you land on 11-100 you hit.  This does not mean that if you say do 100 High jump kicks with your lopunny you will crash a total of a max of 10 times.    The number will be random it could be you miss 5 or 50.  If you dont like High jump kicks accuracy you can always switch to the less powerful but more accurate drain punch on lopunny.
 

I get what you mean, in a single roll you can either rollout 1 or 6, however I believe you missed the point here, probability doesn't work like that. When you roll out a dice you have equal possibilities to roll any number, in this case you have 95% to roll out a specific number, which is not the case.

What I explained above is called normal distribution in statistics, if we try the move a few million times, we would be able to understand how far from the center it is distributed and conclude if the success rate is actually working. 

I know this is boring and most likely, no one cares but it's unfair seeing hydro pump land 7 times in succession and you constantly fail a move which is highly unlikely to fail.

Edited May 18, 2021 by V3G3TTA

[Dan33]

Well theoretically you "should" miss 10/100 (90% accuracy).  But then again, you're not using the move consecutively, so the probability "resets". Test the next 100 hjks you use, and see how many you miss, i doubt the number will be higher than 15, good luck

Edited May 19, 2021 by Dan33

[V3g3tta]

3 hours ago, Dan33 said:

Well theoretically you "should" miss 5/100 (95% accuracy).  But then again, you're not using the move consecutively, so the probability "resets". Test the next 100 hjks you use, and see how many you miss, i doubt the number will be higher than 15, good luck

I've test it, 182 I missed 69 high jumps, success rate around 62%