Pokemon Hunting Suggestions - Spawns, Math, Economy, and Ideas

[Tymazen]

Greetings!

I'm a relatively new player to PRO, but I am a successful business man in life. I find enjoyment in researching, sourcing, and distributing products and thus I decided I was going to dabble in PRO's economy. I sold some Coin Capsules for the starting capital, got some false swipe memento gallades, made a few successful trading buddies, bought 700 super repels, 800 great balls, and began my journey about a week ago to dabble in tier 8 and 9 rare pokemon.

 

And then today, after the 7th day of nothing viable, with thousands of repels and great balls gone, I decided to re-evaluate my business venture decisions to find a new path to mega-millions success. Thus I took to my favorite weapon of business.... the spreadsheet.

 

What I discovered is that PRO does not have an actual healthy economy. It's a gambling ring. As a long time player of multiple MMO's one thing i've found that always draws a larger crowd and keeps the game running, is a healthy competitive economy. But PRO has pokemon hunters too right? Those folks you're running into out there grinding, farming, and hunting? They don't actually know their ROI, otherwise they wouldn't be doing it. 

 

For those that don't really like math, i'll try to break some of this down as common place as possible so the spreadsheet attached below does make sense, and then get into the ideas I have for potential remedies, their pluses, and their downsides. At-least from a player base perspective. 

 

Okay, you've made it this far. Math time!

The probability of any multiple things occurring, that do not have a correlation and causation effect on each other, are simply calculated by Probability of item A * probability of Item B, and so on and so on. The neat thing about pokemon, is everything is random rolled, so nothing about a pokemon you see in the wild is correlated. It's all random, so the math is made easy!

 

So with that in mind, I averaged out my encounters over a few thousand repels, with a tier 8 rare pokemon. This gave me the "average" step count, which could very well have a higher deviation than i'm comfortable with, but alas, I don't have a few hundred friends to assist with this. So bare with me please.

 

With the average steps required and the probability formula in hand, all I had to do was yoink someone else's beautiful IV probability forumula right off our forums. (I lost the post, but whoever you are, I thank you.)

 

Which we got as (32-Desired IV)/31 Super simple!

 

Thus I put all the numbers together into a spreadsheet... and viola!

 

That 20/20 Atk/Spe adamant Tier 8 Drag with normal ability you just bought for 200k and felt like you got robbed? That pokemon takes on average $67,438 pokedollars in ultra balls, and 1,873 hours of walking in place to get. If they had to repel trick, it's cost average is $769,923.98 pokedollars to get. If time is money, we apparently, are not worth much in this economy! Also to note, this does not include the time, effort, or resources it took to EV train, level, and teach that sucker moves. That 31/31 Ada HA with correct nature you just got for 10+mil? Yea that suckers cost average resources and labor value is 18.5mil with no repels, and 210mil with. (Just remember, repel trick = faster find, no repel trick = longer)

 

The better the stats get, and the more rare the pokemon, the larger the disparity on the cost average to average market sell price gets. Aka, there are some poor souls out there in the wilderness scraping away just to pay others to take their pokemon, or fiending for an addiction hoping to hit the jackpot. Neither are very healthy.

 

Spreadsheet sample, I will happily provide the full spreadsheet with all tiers of rarity at anyone's request. (PLEASE remember, there's no way I can guarantee the step counts. I do my best, but deviation will always exist. The cost is right, but time and step counts? Could very well be wrong.) 

 

So... if your brain hurts from that, mine does too. That's a whole lot of probabilities less likely than catching lighting with both hands, winning the lottery with my right foot, and catching a legit shiny Mew with my left foot, at the same time.

 

So how do we offset these disparities? We don't like breeding. We want interaction, MMO environment, longevity, and sustainability.

 

1- In-game Auction House. Auction houses bring with them some of the most competitive pricing you can find in any game. If you don't have the tricks of the trade, you won't have the price to sell. I have no idea how to code, and whether it's feasible or not. But I do know that public forums that present information, like an auction house in game, or raw material index in real life, bring stability to pricing modules. There's no way you're selling that 15/15 Dragonite for 800k when there's 45x20/20's on the AH for 400k. However, it does mean a stable price point will be visible and set accurately reflecting supply, demand, and labor+cost average for your farmers to make their money and feed their poke-families with. (I know this is on the way, i just couldn't help but re-add it, and hope we get one more thing with it!)

 

2- Sweet Scent. (With a twist?) The worry about sweet scent, is it can be abused by many, which will bring down and devalue the markets pricing on pokemon. Soooo... how do we get around it? You limit the supply of sweet scents available to the market. One of two ways, A) Make it a shop purchasable item (not a move) with a weekly cap, or B) Make it a weekly reward for bosses/events with a cap on how many that can be earned. (again, not a move). Will we see some fluctuation in pricing with sweet scent? Yes. Product versus demand is always real. Could it be rolled out with an Auction House "Commerce" update to balance it out? Absolutely!

 

3-Resell limits. Simple. Pokemon may be sold by their OT to one other trainer. That trainer may sell that pokemon one time. That pokemon may NOT be sold/traded ever again, and is either used or released back into the wild to begin the cycle of life anew. Pros? By limiting resell, we increase market demand for hunters/grinders to get out there and do their job. This increases the average amount of tries to obtain the desired pokemon, and stabilizes pricing and flow. Cons? This could upset a few "flippers" who like the scam newbies out of their pokes and re-sell them for profit, but honestly I don't like those kind of businessmen anyways. Also, how the heck would you code this? Beats me.

 

Last con I can think of.

if we implement healthy commerce, the prices of some pokemon will drop drastically, while others will sky rocket. (Looking at that 31/31 HA Jolly Metagross). So all of a sudden, nobody can afford these pokemon right!?! Wrong! A slight increase to certain PvE/PvP content payout after some metrics have been recorded, and the influx of hunters selling to distributors for resell will stabilize cash flow all around. Will you be able to get that super cool god roll poke when you've put no time or effort into getting cashflow or hunting it without crazy luck? Nope. But who gets rich or beats end game content in MMO's without time, effort, and community anyways?

 

 

If you read this far, thank you for reading my rant and viewing the numbers. If you hated it all, let me know. (Politely please, i'm really trying to be helpful here.) If you loved it, please let me know. I would be ecstatic to look at this and consult anyone player/admin/or anything else to the best of my abilities. 

 

Lastly,

Now that this has been posted. I'll be returning to my obligatory 3 meter deep worn 2x4 walking path on the moon with a full bag of repels and ultra balls to hurt my self more, because sadly, there's no other way and doggone it I like gambling too.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Tymazen

[Qeight]

Didn't read it yet but still liked it for all the effort you spent on it.

[Tymazen]

21 minutes ago, Qeight said:

Didn't read it yet but still liked it for all the effort you spent on it.

LOL! Sorry for the book mate! I do hope it's not a waste of anyones time!

 

Funny thing about the spreadsheet too, I only did two IV's. I didn't even bother calculating 3+ or varied like 25/25 - 20+.

 

The only other thing I could think of that's simple would be a repel cost average down from the max repel seller, to ensure the middle ground areas 20/20 - 25/25 etc cost average out to a profit over a large distribution. I love the idea of money sinks to get cashflow out, and I definitely feel like 31/31 monsters should be very rare, so I don't want that to go away. But that repel guy is a jerk with a trenchcoat on the side walk selling mcdonalds large soda versus medium soda both at the same fluid oz kinda ripoff. >=[ I can get 500 Super Repels for the exact same price he sells 400 max repels, and its all the same step count.

 

You gents know the actual spawn rates so i'd be happy to provide the spreadsheet for you to apply it to in the super secret gm labs. Or i'll shutup if everyone hates my rant. xD

Edited August 11, 2021 by Tymazen

[G3n3r4l]

3 hours ago, Tymazen said:

800 great balls

lmao, waste

 

3 hours ago, Tymazen said:

1- In-game Auction House.

Already on the to do list.

3 hours ago, Tymazen said:

3-Resell limits. Simple. Pokemon may be sold by their OT to one other trainer.

as much as i dislike the way the market works with it, this is not a solution, if i buy a poke, use it for a while, then no longer need it, i'd sell it, no use in keeping it.

 

Overall, appreciate the math though, love it when someone with a thorough understanding gets involved and proves to others how stuff works, when most can't understand the basics of it. I read through it all, looks solid

 

[Tymazen]

9 minutes ago, g3n3r4l said:

lmao, waste

 

Already on the to do list.

as much as i dislike the way the market works with it, this is not a solution, if i buy a poke, use it for a while, then no longer need it, i'd sell it, no use in keeping it.

 

Overall, appreciate the math though, love it when someone with a thorough understanding gets involved and proves to others how stuff works, when most can't understand the basics of it. I read through it all, looks solid

 

 

also, funny bit. I chose ultra balls because.... I have hyper bad luck and even a 1hp, paralyzed or asleep Gible with no more than 5IV’s in each stat breaks 9 before I catch him.

 

I quite literally, would never catch a single one with anything less. T_T

Edited August 11, 2021 by Tymazen

[Olker]

4 hours ago, Tymazen said:

Greetings!

I'm a relatively new player to PRO, but I am a successful business man in life. I find enjoyment in researching, sourcing, and distributing products and thus I decided I was going to dabble in PRO's economy. I sold some Coin Capsules for the starting capital, got some false swipe memento gallades, made a few successful trading buddies, bought 700 super repels, 800 great balls, and began my journey about a week ago to dabble in tier 8 and 9 rare pokemon.

 

And then today, after the 7th day of nothing viable, with thousands of repels and great balls gone, I decided to re-evaluate my business venture decisions to find a new path to mega-millions success. Thus I took to my favorite weapon of business.... the spreadsheet.

 

What I discovered is that PRO does not have an actual healthy economy. It's a gambling ring. As a long time player of multiple MMO's one thing i've found that always draws a larger crowd and keeps the game running, is a healthy competitive economy. But PRO has pokemon hunters too right? Those folks you're running into out there grinding, farming, and hunting? They don't actually know their ROI, otherwise they wouldn't be doing it. 

 

For those that don't really like math, i'll try to break some of this down as common place as possible so the spreadsheet attached below does make sense, and then get into the ideas I have for potential remedies, their pluses, and their downsides. At-least from a player base perspective. 

 

Okay, you've made it this far. Math time!

The probability of any multiple things occurring, that do not have a correlation and causation effect on each other, are simply calculated by Probability of item A * probability of Item B, and so on and so on. The neat thing about pokemon, is everything is random rolled, so nothing about a pokemon you see in the wild is correlated. It's all random, so the math is made easy!

 

So with that in mind, I averaged out my encounters over a few thousand repels, with a tier 8 rare pokemon. This gave me the "average" step count, which could very well have a higher deviation than i'm comfortable with, but alas, I don't have a few hundred friends to assist with this. So bare with me please.

 

With the average steps required and the probability formula in hand, all I had to do was yoink someone else's beautiful IV probability forumula right off our forums. (I lost the post, but whoever you are, I thank you.)

 

Which we got as (32-Desired IV)/31 Super simple!

 

Thus I put all the numbers together into a spreadsheet... and viola!

 

That 20/20 Atk/Spe adamant Tier 8 Drag with normal ability you just bought for 200k and felt like you got robbed? That pokemon takes on average $67,438 pokedollars in ultra balls, and 1,873 hours of walking in place to get. If they had to repel trick, it's cost average is $769,923.98 pokedollars to get. If time is money, we apparently, are not worth much in this economy! Also to note, this does not include the time, effort, or resources it took to EV train, level, and teach that sucker moves. That 31/31 Ada HA with correct nature you just got for 10+mil? Yea that suckers cost average resources and labor value is 18.5mil with no repels, and 210mil with. (Just remember, repel trick = faster find, no repel trick = longer)

 

The better the stats get, and the more rare the pokemon, the larger the disparity on the cost average to average market sell price gets. Aka, there are some poor souls out there in the wilderness scraping away just to pay others to take their pokemon, or fiending for an addiction hoping to hit the jackpot. Neither are very healthy.

 

Spreadsheet sample, I will happily provide the full spreadsheet with all tiers of rarity at anyone's request. (PLEASE remember, there's no way I can guarantee the step counts. I do my best, but deviation will always exist. The cost is right, but time and step counts? Could very well be wrong.) 

 

So... if your brain hurts from that, mine does too. That's a whole lot of probabilities less likely than catching lighting with both hands, winning the lottery with my right foot, and catching a legit shiny Mew with my left foot, at the same time.

 

So how do we offset these disparities? We don't like breeding. We want interaction, MMO environment, longevity, and sustainability.

 

1- In-game Auction House. Auction houses bring with them some of the most competitive pricing you can find in any game. If you don't have the tricks of the trade, you won't have the price to sell. I have no idea how to code, and whether it's feasible or not. But I do know that public forums that present information, like an auction house in game, or raw material index in real life, bring stability to pricing modules. There's no way you're selling that 15/15 Dragonite for 800k when there's 45x20/20's on the AH for 400k. However, it does mean a stable price point will be visible and set accurately reflecting supply, demand, and labor+cost average for your farmers to make their money and feed their poke-families with. (I know this is on the way, i just couldn't help but re-add it, and hope we get one more thing with it!)

 

2- Sweet Scent. (With a twist?) The worry about sweet scent, is it can be abused by many, which will bring down and devalue the markets pricing on pokemon. Soooo... how do we get around it? You limit the supply of sweet scents available to the market. One of two ways, A) Make it a shop purchasable item (not a move) with a weekly cap, or B) Make it a weekly reward for bosses/events with a cap on how many that can be earned. (again, not a move). Will we see some fluctuation in pricing with sweet scent? Yes. Product versus demand is always real. Could it be rolled out with an Auction House "Commerce" update to balance it out? Absolutely!

 

3-Resell limits. Simple. Pokemon may be sold by their OT to one other trainer. That trainer may sell that pokemon one time. That pokemon may NOT be sold/traded ever again, and is either used or released back into the wild to begin the cycle of life anew. Pros? By limiting resell, we increase market demand for hunters/grinders to get out there and do their job. This increases the average amount of tries to obtain the desired pokemon, and stabilizes pricing and flow. Cons? This could upset a few "flippers" who like the scam newbies out of their pokes and re-sell them for profit, but honestly I don't like those kind of businessmen anyways. Also, how the heck would you code this? Beats me.

 

Last con I can think of.

if we implement healthy commerce, the prices of some pokemon will drop drastically, while others will sky rocket. (Looking at that 31/31 HA Jolly Metagross). So all of a sudden, nobody can afford these pokemon right!?! Wrong! A slight increase to certain PvE/PvP content payout after some metrics have been recorded, and the influx of hunters selling to distributors for resell will stabilize cash flow all around. Will you be able to get that super cool god roll poke when you've put no time or effort into getting cashflow or hunting it without crazy luck? Nope. But who gets rich or beats end game content in MMO's without time, effort, and community anyways?

 

 

If you read this far, thank you for reading my rant and viewing the numbers. If you hated it all, let me know. (Politely please, i'm really trying to be helpful here.) If you loved it, please let me know. I would be ecstatic to look at this and consult anyone player/admin/or anything else to the best of my abilities. 

 

Lastly,

Now that this has been posted. I'll be returning to my obligatory 3 meter deep worn 2x4 walking path on the moon with a full bag of repels and ultra balls to hurt my self more, because sadly, there's no other way and doggone it I like gambling too.

Numbers in the spreadsheet aren't really hard to understand. However, the time invested fpr creating it is appreciated. As you said, I disagree with the time factor, I believe it takes much, MUCH mess. Responding to the suggestions:

 

1. It has been suggested already, and is being worked on. I hope it works like neopets auctions.

2. I prefer for it to just be coded. I strongly believe that the market will re-balance itself, probably producing a lower range of varying prices.

3. Kind of like pokémon go? I completely disagree with this one, it would limit the economy completely, disbanding it from being a real free market.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Olker

[Sin]

Really nice, thank you for the post.

 

5 hours ago, Tymazen said:

That 20/20 Atk/Spe adamant Tier 8 Drag with normal ability you just bought for 200k and felt like you got robbed? That pokemon takes on average $67,438 pokedollars in ultra balls, and 1,873 hours of walking in place to get. If they had to repel trick, it's cost average is $769,923.98 pokedollars to get.

 

Correct me if I understood it wrong, but the way I see that 700k in your calculation is the cost for any 20+ in Desired Stats, etc., so it does make sense for a 20/20 only Atk/Spd to fall on the lower end of the spectrum (200k in your hypothesis).

Still, of course Pokemon price would only become more expensive if we include in opportunity cost also, as in for the time you spend hunting you could instead have made money in many other ways (and arguably faster?). As you have said tho, hunting is gambling, the odds might not be in our favors but heck, don't we all enjoy the thrill out of it when good things happen  Or as many hunters would say, they hunt for that OT's pride.
 

5 hours ago, Tymazen said:

1- In-game Auction House. 

 

2- Sweet Scent.

 

3-Resell limits.

They are interesting suggestions. I too am looking forward to Auction House as it could have a very big impact on the game depends on the final design it takes shape (looking at Global Trading List on other MMO tho I'm pretty sure PRO's auction house would be simpler with a different purpose in mind).

And yes, I'd love a copy of your excel spreadsheet for future references! Thanks for your time making this.

[Tymazen]

3 hours ago, Sin said:

Really nice, thank you for the post.

 

Correct me if I understood it wrong, but the way I see that 700k in your calculation is the cost for any 20+ in Desired Stats, etc., so it does make sense for a 20/20 only Atk/Spd to fall on the lower end of the spectrum (200k in your hypothesis).

Still, of course Pokemon price would only become more expensive if we include in opportunity cost also, as in for the time you spend hunting you could instead have made money in many other ways (and arguably faster?). As you have said tho, hunting is gambling, the odds might not be in our favors but heck, don't we all enjoy the thrill out of it when good things happen  Or as many hunters would say, they hunt for that OT's pride.
 

They are interesting suggestions. I too am looking forward to Auction House as it could have a very big impact on the game depends on the final design it takes shape (looking at Global Trading List on other MMO tho I'm pretty sure PRO's auction house would be simpler with a different purpose in mind).

And yes, I'd love a copy of your excel spreadsheet for future references! Thanks for your time making this.

Hey bud!

 

700k is ultra ball + repel trick cost average for the probability of obtaining a pokemon with Ability 1, or 2, right or wrong nature, and 20/20 in any 2 IV's. Including the ones you desire. So Atk/Spe -- SpA/Spe -- Def/Hp -- HP/Def -- Etc, etc. Remember it's probability, so you could get it on the first try, or technically, your luck could be so cursed you literally never get it. Probabiltiy doesn't care which two stats got the IV's. The odds are the same for Atk/Spe as they are hp/Def.

 

I agree there are definitely better ways to make money. Like just kill your weekly bosses. 10mil easy right? But... that's full single player. The entire reason breeding isn't in the game is so it has MMO feel. If nobody hunted pokemon to sell/trade.... and just did the weekly PvE content, it would literally just be a single player game on a server where you sometimes see others. Thus it defeats the purpose. Monetizing and incentivizing the MMO aspects will increase the game quality overall, and the playerbase numbers. Thus making hunting atleast profitable will get more players hunting, trading mons to hunt with, trading mons to boss with, trading mons to pvp with, etc etc.

 

Am I allowed to link a drop box on the forums or is that a nono? I haven't really found anything that says yes or no in the rules. Kinda gray area?

[Sin]

3 minutes ago, Tymazen said:

Am I allowed to link a drop box on the forums or is that a nono? I haven't really found anything that says yes or no in the rules. Kinda gray area?

I have no clue, tho I believe it should not be a problem. You can drop me the link in my inbox too if you prefer

[Tymazen]

5 hours ago, Olker said:

Numbers in the spreadsheet aren't really hard to understand. However, the time invested fpr creating it is appreciated. As you said, I disagree with the time factor, I believe it takes much, MUCH mess. Responding to the suggestions:

 

1. It has been suggested already, and is being worked on. I hope it works like neopets auctions.

2. I prefer for it to just be coded. I strongly believe that the market will re-balance itself, probably producing a lower range of varying prices.

3. Kind of like pokémon go? I completely disagree with this one, it would limit the economy completely, disbanding it from being a real free market.

I just added the math disclaimer because my wife, brilliant as she may be, absolutely despises math and gets a headache from it. Thus I try to be a bit more respectful of those that fall inot her category of genius, but mathematically challenged lol.

 

I'd love a Sweet Scent ability in game, but i'm worried it would saturate the market too much, thus flood it, drop average costs to even more unhealthy levels, and then require the admins to decrease spawn rates to offset it, and put us right back to square one.

 

I'm all for free market baby, trust me! It was just a concept to reduce back-end market saturation. Average player count of 600 online at a time, REAL easy to flood a market with dratini's if 50 people are hunting them. a lot harder to flood a market if there's a number limit on trades. I'm a little worried AH addition will make market volume a bit too transparent and plummet prices even more, thus further hurt hunting mons till it gets to the point that the only mons on the market are re-sells over and over, because the cost and probability of getting one decent enough to sell is so horrendous that new additions will only be random flukes of luck versus actually hunters getting them. A complete lack of demand and profit due to market over saturation will kill the economy, and worse yet, the game. Remember, pokemon is at its core about collecting pokemon. (maybe beating up some other trainers too) 

 

Without hunting, we literally don't have a game to play and share with eachother. Who's gunna money dump into repels, sweet scents, and pokeballs to go collect mons if it's just not worth the time? Nobody. Everyone will carry a few "just in case" but otherwise everybodies money piles will just build up from bossing, and devalue the effort and currency players have. To maintain a healthy market and player base, hunting mons NEEDS to have some profit. The market NEEDS constant demands, and there NEEDS to be money sinks for players to invest that earned money into. Hunting mons is a great way for it, because it's practically endless chasing that 6x31 perfect shiny mon. If the playerbase is too large or too small thus requiring the market to need admin intervention to keep it healthy and flowing, then something will eventually have to be done. (Not saying it's there yet, just saying i'm worried about it from what I've learned, calculated, and witnessed. The majority of trade chat is the same people spamming theyre selling the same pokemon all week long. Then next week its maybe a few new people selling the same pokemon, while everyone sits on and never spends their cash. It feels and looks like there's practically no money flowing based off what the player base actually has for money. Devs can check this percent i'm sure. If there's not atleast a 60% flow of total sum of player cash on a routine basis then there's a massive market issue.)